Gold price by weight
Same weight in Sri Lanka, Korea and the US, at bank selling rates
Each currency has its own scale, so the charts sit side by side rather than on one axis. History uses each day's market exchange rate, adjusted by today's bank selling spread. Prices are the gold value only, before jeweller premiums and making charges.
Gold price
COMEX gold futures · daily
Price forecast
Next 3 months · quant ensemble + Gemini AI view
How the forecast works
The quant model blends four simple models of the expected price path: damped Holt exponential smoothing, a damped 3-month trend, half of the 5-year average drift, and slow mean reversion toward the 200-day average. Recent news sentiment adds a small, fading tilt. The shaded ranges come from 4,000 simulated paths that resample gold's own historical daily moves, rescaled to today's volatility.
The AI view comes from Google Gemini. It reads the market data, the technical signals and the latest headlines, then gives its own targets. The blended line is 60% quant and 40% AI. Gold is volatile and no model predicts it reliably, so treat these as scenarios, not advice.
Long-term outlook: 6 months to 2 years
Long-range model from gold prices since 2000, plus the Gemini AI view
Holding cost check
Buying and later selling costs money: the bank exchange spread, the jeweller's buy/sell margin and, in Korea, 10% VAT on physical gold. Enter your round-trip cost to see how often the model's simulated outcomes beat it.
| Hold for | Chance price is up | Chance gain beats cost |
|---|
What happened after similar drops
Long-term signals
Local-currency figures use today's bank exchange rate. Over 1–2 years the exchange rate itself moves (the rupee has tended to weaken against the dollar, which raises rupee gold prices). These are statistical scenarios, not financial advice.
AI market analysis
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Key drivers
Risks to watch
Short-term momentum
Days-to-weeks trend signals, recalculated every 15 minutes with the live price
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|
News sentiment, last 7 days
Gold vs market drivers
Indexed to 100, one year ago
Exchange rates used
Bank USD selling rates (telegraphic transfer, TT), refreshed every 15 minutes
KRW per 돈 (3.75g), 1 year
LKR per pawn (8g, 24k), 1 year
Model track record
Walk-forward backtests: short range over the last ~3 years, 1–2 years since 2003
| Horizon | Avg error | Naive error | Direction right | Inside 90% range | Tests |
|---|
“Naive” assumes the price stays where it is. A model only adds value where its error beats the naive error. Gold is close to a random walk, so expect small edges at best.